Monthly Archives: June 2016

BREXIT

The Economy: Fed Chair Yellen appeared before Congress this week; Tuesday before the Senate, Wednesday before the House. Hostility towards Yellen was palpable with House members reducing her to confusion and gestures of helplessness. Global distain for authority in general and Central Bankers in particular was evident in spades. But the Mother of All Events was the Brexit vote on Thursday. Pollsters and pundits got it all wrong with their incessant predictions of a landslide win for “Remain.” Flashing the Longbowman’s “V” the Brits moved to reestablish their national sovereignty and leave the EU. Financial markets crashed in shock and awe on Friday. (Only fools are going to buy this dip.) The uncertainty of Brexit was quickly on display. Though the process is supposed to take 2-years, British politicians began to call to immediately disregard many EU laws; particularly those on immigration and banking. Political parties throughout Europe began to call for Exit Referendums in their own countries. This is the death knell for the EU. Great Britain is the second largest economy in the EU. Saying the EU will survive is akin to saying that a marriage is still intact after one of the spouses has left after leaving an “I’m thru with U” note nailed to the front door. It’s gonna get messy.

Food for Thought: For over 70-years global bureaucrats and central bankers have pushed the secular, one-world agenda characterized by multiculturalism, globalization and the tyranny of the minority. These mostly unelected officials, while deriding the Divine Right of Kings, have ruled with the arrogance of dictators. They have ignored the social contract based on the consent of the governed. Brexit signals the beginning of the end of their failed reign. Despite the near universal, and very vocal, support of “Remain” by global politicians and despite the total support by the mainstream media for “Remain” the Brits revolted against the overlords and their propagandists. Political ramifications were immediate with British Prime Minister Cameron resigning. The ripples are beginning to roil outwards from ground zero with economic changes in the wind. If a slowing global economy, negative interest rates and the failure of global monetary policy weren’t enough, Brexit adds to the uncertainty that has so paralyzed Janet nd the Seven Dwarfs. However, we see opportunity in chaos. Contact us for how to protect your assets in the coming roller coaster ride.

Stem Cell Therapy: A Journey, Part 2

Stem Cell Therapy: A Journey, #2

After watching the stock markets implode on quadruple witching, We left my La Jolla office to drive to The Stem Cell Treatment Center on Directors Place, one block north of Mira Mesa Boulevard. Directors Place is located on the new frontage road on the east side of I805.

“We” is my wife and myself. Though stem cell therapy is considered an outpatient procedure and you are told you can drive yourself to and from the appointment, I wanted to make sure I had a backup driver.

My appointment was for 1PM. $8,000 cash. $4000 per hip. As of the date of my treatment, Stem Cell Therapy was not approved by the FDA. So it is called “experimental medicine” and is not covered by medical insurance. A hip replacement, which is approved by the FDA costs a minimum of $35,000 per hip. It is massively invasive and results in cutting the largest bone in your body and replacing it with a manufactured ball and socket. Welcome to life as a Borg.

We drove up the hill from the beach on Camino Del Oro and got on La Jolla Village Drive East. It was a judgment call to go La Jolla Village Drive or to get on I5 north and go east on Sorrento Valley Road. To my chagrin, I chose the former.

It took us 30 minutes to drive the 4 miles from my office in La Jolla to the doctor’s office. We hit every single stoplight during Christmas lunchtime rush hour. Count ‘em 17 stoplights.

The German logic embedded in the BMW navigation system proved to be maddening as we approached the stem cell center. The Prussian My-Way-Or-The-Highway algos didn’t allow me to input the exact address so I had to rely on memory to guide me in to the doctor’s office.

We parked the car, entered the lobby of the surgical building; then went up to the third floor Suite 360. Nobody was in the office except for the nurse receptionist Kathy who I had swapped emails with but had never met.

Medicine is like the Navy; Hurry up and wait. I throttled my impatience and chatted with Kathy. At 10 minutes after 1PM the entire plastics and orthopedic crews showed up. They had been shopping at Costco. They were good naturedly honest about it. They apologized for the traffic; the only legitimate late excuse in Southern California, and all was forgiven. “Andale!”

The stem cell treatment was to be performed in three parts. First was harvesting adipose tissue (fat cells) through liposuction of love handles on the upper butt area. Part two was to centrifuge the extracted 50 mL of fat to get the stem cells. Step three was to inject three vials of 1) stem cells, 2) growth factor and 3) Hyaluronic Acid. Think of the three as, the cells, their food and the molecular lattice structure for the cells to grow on.

Still waiting, I decided to take a coffee break; maybe it would counteract some of my growing impatience. It seemed to work because I was in better spirits when I got back to the waiting room. Bob the Physician’s Assistant introduced himself and told me to saddle-up for lipo.

At this point, I was the only patient in the 3000 square-foot surgical suite. Later my wife told me that after I disappeared behind Oz’s curtain for the liposuction, there was a steady stream of Baby Boomer cash buyers who came through the complex.

I followed Bob back to the treatment room where the liposuction would be performed. I left my Kindle, IPhone, wallet and car keys with My wife in the waiting room.

It turned out that Bob had been a Navy Corpsman. As an Asian American he’d spent his Navy time in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“Glad I missed Vietnam,” he said. “It was easier to be around the camel jockeys than it would have to be around the gooks.” After getting out of the Navy a few years ago, he tried pharmaceutical sales before coming back to the surgical suite.

Bob began to place me on the lipo gurney when the Plastic Surgeon, Craig, came into the treatment room. Craig explained that he was the Plastics Guy and was only going to do the lipo. When I asked where his medical offices were, he told me that he was an active duty Navy Captain stationed at the Navy Regional Medical Center in Balboa Park.

He said that in a war zone he did wound reconstruction but that most of what he did now was breast cancer reconstruction of the kind done on Angelina Jolie. I mentioned the Boat School and Craig laughed saying, “I was born and raised in Annapolis. My grandfather and uncle were Ring Knockers. I’m 47. It’s taken me 19 years to make Captain. Time to transition.”

“Amen Brother,” I replied. “I did 4-Westpacs when Hong Kong, Olongapo and Singapore were full of the wildest women on the planet.” “I love you, no shit. Buy me a drink!” Bob chimed in. The three of us erupted in laughter

With the testosterone at the appropriate level, I took off my old topsiders and laid face-down in my navy blue sweats on the gurney. Bob asked me to pull the top of my sweats to mid chest and pull down the bottom of my sweats to the bottom of my butt cheeks.

I had met Craig last week at the pre-op conference. As we chatted while Bob prepped me for the liposuction, Craig told me that in order to comply with all regulations, he would take a leave day to perform the lipo on a specific patient group. This was why the stem cell treatments were scheduled for all patients only twice a month on Fridays. The scheduling allowed Craig to take a leave day, perform a couple of dozen liposuctions, make more money in a day then he made in a year as a Navy captain and then go back to his work at Navy regional medical center Balboa Park.

As a Bob draped my butt, Dr. Craig explained what was going to be happening during the liposuction.

He said the most painful part of the procedure was going to be the process where numbing solution was injected into the fat to be removed. He then proceeded to numb the skin in a dozen different places on both sides of my upper butt just below my belt-line.

Next was injecting the numbing solution into the fat … and he was right. The injection of the numbing solution was painful. My body jerked involuntarily in spite of my trying to remain relaxed. I was aware that the jocular talk had tapered off as I focused on the task at hand; trying to play the Terminator without flinching..

My mother was a Registered Nurse. Early on I realized that medical personal never use the word “pain.” Instead, the euphemism “discomfort” is substituted.

I can imagine the field hospital scene at the Battle of Gettysburg. A young soldier whose leg has been shattered by gunfire, is brought into the surgical tent. The drunken butcher who is going to amputate the leg, asks 9-men to hold the patient down because there are no anesthetics. Even the whiskey has run out. As the doctor picks up the bloody saw and positions himself to hack off the offending limb, the terrified patient looks up and whimpers, “Doc, is it gonna hurt?” … and the doctor says, “Son, you’ll just have some discomfort.” …. as piercing screams fill the air … fade to black.

So there was some discomfort; uncomfortable but not unbearable as the area was numbed. Then two small vertical incisions, about ¼ inch in length, were made on each side at the top of my butt cgurney and the lipo began.

Liposuction consists of ramming a hollow tube, called a cannula, back and forth through your fat. The dislodged fat residue is then sucked out of the area. There is nothing delicate about this process of having a foreign object jammed in and out of your body. The motion is the same as that you would use when shooting pool. But unlike shooting pool, the doctor is putting his back into this effort. This “rammin’ and jammin’” was done in silence as the banter gave way to the very physical task at hand.

There is discomfort. But anesthetics do a remarkable job. The occasional pain spike caused my body to jump but Craig was responsive saying, “We won’t go there again” as he rammed and jammed in another direction. He worked a fan shaped area on both sides of my upper butt. When he was done with the left side, he immediately went to work on the right side. In a few short minutes he was done.

He then asked if I was interested in seeing the 50 ml cylinder of extracted fat cells. I was interested. It looked like a cigar size syringe full of pink Smoothie from 7/11..

After 20 minutes of which included prep, the lipo and post lipo wrapping, I was back on my feet and in the waiting room.

Kathy, the reception area nurse, told me that it would take an hour for them to centrifuge the fat cells and extract the stem cells. She recommended that I leave the office and kill an hour with a cup of coffee. She gave me a $20 Starbucks Gift Card and recommended that I drive down the hill to the Scranton Road Shopping Center on the North East corner of I 805 and Mira Mesa Boulevard. Kathy recommended that we be back in the office at 3:30. So at 2:30 PM we left, drove down the hill and got some Christmas cookies and hot chocolate at Starbucks.

The shopping center is adjacent to the infamous red “Dog Dick’ sculpture that is in front of the San Diego Tech Center building. The sculpture was erected in the mid 1980’s. It used to be easily seen from I805. Now you have to be on Scranton Road to see it. But there it is. “Dog Dick” reigns supreme in its turgid 100 feet of .fire-engine-red glory; pointing at the sky awaiting the Mother of all Bitches.

After sitting out in front of Starbucks enjoying the 70 degree weather, we drove back to the surgical center.

We arrived back in the surgical office at 3:30PM. I was met in the waiting room by the orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Pete, who was going to perform the stem cell injections. My wife again sat in the waiting room while I was ushered into the treatment room which was located across from the nurses station. After a quick introduction, Pete disappeared after turning me over to Bob for prep.

When I entered the treatment room, I noticed that there was an intravenous drip (IV drip) set up next to the treatment gurney. Bob commented that my stem cell count was about 85 million cells which was the upper end of the norm. Bob asked me to lay on my back on the gurney. The IV drip contained saline solution. Bob told me that treatment now included a systemic injection of a portion of the stem cells through an IV drip back into the patient’s body. He said that this had reduced or eliminated a variety of aches and pains in patients that had received it. This was good news. Self-medication continues to recede. “Fire when ready Gridley!”

As Bob searched for an appropriate vein in my left arm, I told him that my veins rolled. As a blood donor I’d gotten in the habit of telling the help because my rolling veins had been problematic. On more than one occasion I’d had to stop some dullard who confused vivisection with medical care, as they continuously tried to harpoon my rolling veins. Eventually I began to address all medical technicians as Doctor Moreau whenever I sat down and began to roll up my sleeve to give blood. Many times the technician would disdainfully tell me, “I’m not a Doctor.”

Duh!

But Bob was the real McCoy. His aim was true and in no time my own stem cells were coursing back into my body on the IV drip. When the injection was done, Bob removed the needle from my left arm, and put a bandage on the spot. Then the door opened and Pete came in.

While Bob prepared the sonogram transducer with KY and positioned the screen, Pete explained the injection procedure. He showed me the three vials and explained that the largest containing the stem cells would be injected first, followed by a smaller volume of growth factor and a third volume of hyaluronic acid aka “rooster comb.”

The procedure was similar to the cortisone injections that I’d previously had. With me lying on my side, the Doc selected a spot directly above my hip joint. Then an aerosol can of numbing solution was sprayed on the point of entry for the 4-inch hollow needle. The Doc drove the needle straight down into the hip joint while Bob sprayed the impact zone with the local anesthesia. Once the needle had been guided into the joint using the sonogram, the stem cells were injected with Dr. Pete looking at the sonogram display and injecting the cells into specific areas of the hip joint. On my left hip this was a slow and painful process as he moved the needle around within the joint. I could feel the stem cell solution going into my joint and the resulting pressure of having the area around the hip joint expanded by fluid. The stem cells were followed by the growth factor and then the hyaluronic acid.

The process for my right hip went much faster. Pete again drove the needle straight down into my hip joint. He then injected the entire stem cell solution quickly without having to work the needle. Next, as he injected the growth factor and hyaluronic acid, he explained that my left hip had been “dry.” Injecting the left hip had been more painful and had gone more slowly because there was little natural lubricant in the left hip joint.

My right hip, however, was full of fluid because it was more inflamed. This is consistent with what I had experienced since my last Cortisone shot 90 days ago. I went into that Cortisone shot with my left hip more painful than my right. I came out with my right hip more painful. It has subsequently remained more painful. Uh …. I mean there had been more discomfort!

The stem cell injection procedure from beginning to end took half an hour from the moment that I walked in and lay down on the gurney until I got back up and was escorted out of the room by Bob.

When I left the treatment room, Pete, Craig and Bob were all standing at the nurses station. I stopped for a moment to thank them. They asked what I did for a living. When I said that I owned a wealth management firm, they began talking about the venture-capital opportunities available in the stem cell space in San Diego.

My wife and I left the Stem Cell Center at 4:15PM with a Vicodin script. We drove straight to Ralphs Pharmacy to get it filled. Sorry Charlie, Pete had mis-dated the script 12/19 instead of 12/18 so the pharmacy wouldn’t fill the script. The pharmacist wouldn’t give the script back to us so we were stuck with having to come back after midnight to pick it up.

I just laughed. Thank you God for all my blessings!

Stem Cell Therapy: A Journey, Part 1

Stem Cell Therapy: A Journey, #1

Stem Cell Therapy is also called Regenerative Medicine. It’s a branch of molecular biology which deals with the “process of replacing, engineering or regenerating human cells to restore or establish normal function.” The objective is to engineer damaged tissues and organs by stimulating the body’s own repair mechanisms to heal previously irreparable tissues or organs.

The mechanism of regeneration is not yet fully understood. Most doctors will tell you, “We really don’t fully understand what is happening here …” But like early vaccinations, which weren’t fully understood either, the positive results are encouraging. Some of the long-term results are evident in the rarefied world of horse racing where stem cell therapy has been used for years.

Stem Cell Therapy uses three biological factors to work. 1) Your own stem cells. 2) Nutrients to encourage cell growth and 3) A molecular lattice or scaffold that the Stem Cells can attach to and grow.

Let’s look at each of these three biological factors:

1) Stem Cells or Mesenchymal Stem Cells are now also known as Multipotent Stromal Cells (MSCs). They can morph, into a variety of cell types, including bone cells, cartilage cells and muscle. Stem cells are divided into “adult” and “embryonic.” Adult stem cells are used in stem cell therapy. Embryonic stem cells are still the focus of ethical issues and are not part of this discussion. The two most common areas where stem cells are taken from your body are from bone marrow or body fat. Early stem cell therapy emphasized bone marrow over body fat as a source for bone and cartilage treatment. Most therapies have moved away from this distinction and now use body fat, also known as “Adipose-Tissue-Derived Stem Cells” or (ADSCs). ADSCs are usually taken from the back or “love handles” in a minor liposuction procedure at the beginning of your same-day treatment. Body fat one of the richest sources of stem cells. There are more than 500 times more stem cells in 1 gram of fat than in 1 gram of bone marrow. Body fat stem cells are actively being researched in clinical trials for treatment of a variety of diseases.

2) Nutrients to Encourage Cell Growth is a platelet-rich plasma (PRP). PRP contains multiple growth factors including transforming growth factor (TGF), insulin-like growth factor (IGF), fibroblast growth factor (FGF), and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF). Data shows that PRP has a positive effect on the stimulation of bones, blood vessel and cartilage formation. Think of it as nutrient bath that encourages stem cell growth and development in the affected areas of your body. Stem Cells need to food to grow as they develop in the body. Chow Time!

3) A molecular frame, lattice or scaffold that the Stem Cells can attach to and grow. Think Chia Pet. Those seeds need to have something to hang onto while they grow. Same with Stem Cells; they’ve got to have a structure to grow on. Hyaluronic Acid (HA) is a molecule with functions found in many tissues, including cartilage. HA is currently used as the molecular scaffold system. The scoffold typically serves for at least one of the following purposes: To allow cell attachment and migration; To deliver and retain cells and biochemical factors; To enable diffusion of vital cell nutrients and expressed products; To exert certain mechanical and biological influences to modify the behaviour of the cell phase. Using injected HA-binding provides the ability to interact with your body’s local HA which should foster new 3-dimensional cell tissue production. Calcium chloride is used as a PRP-activating agent.

My Stem Cell Treatment on December 18, 2015,consisted of 3 injections, one right after the other in the same spot, during my 2-hour procedure: 1) Stem cells. 2) Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) RPR Growth Factor. 3) Hyaluronic Acid (HA) as a Scaffold.

Cognitive Biases by Mark Dow

1. We overestimate our abilities, our uniqueness, and our objectivity, even more so when under emotional strain. We have all seen the studies: 90% of people say they are above average drivers. Rarely do people think those around them work harder or better than they do. And so on…

2. We systematically understate the role of ‘random’. We crave order, and we are willing to torture the facts to get there. But sometime things just happen, and sometimes problems don’t have solutions. No fundamental cause, no guilty party, no concrete answers. Moreover, on the up side, when random does break our way it’s appropriated as skill. The investment world is shockingly bad at separating outcome and process—yes, even those who drone on and on to prospects about their processes.

3. People will find a way to believe what they are incented to believe. As the saying goes, “The most dangerous place to stand is in between someone and what they want to believe”. In my experience, it’s hard to overestimate the power of this statement. Starting with the conclusion and reverse-engineering the supporting arguments is central to the human condition and, surprisingly, serves and important role in our evolution.

4. When presented with points 1, 2, and 3, almost everyone recognizes their validity, but believes at some level that he/she is exempt. The typical reaction is “Yeah, for sure, of course that’s how [other] people act”. It is always easier to see others’ mistakes than one’s own. And this is one of the reasons we have a very hard time changing our cognitive biases. All of us.

7 Realities of Life

7 Realities Of Life from the Libertarian Republic

1. Your Feelings Are Largely Irrelevant

Seriously, nobody who has already graduated college cares about your feelings. That means that when you complain to your boss because your co-worker mis-gendered you, he’s probably not going to bend over backwards to bandage your wounds. Given feelings are entirely subjective in nature, it’s completely unreasonable to demand everyone tip-toe around you to prevent yours from being hurt. The reality is that people will offend you and hurt your feelings, and they won’t stop to mop up your tears because they shouldn’t have to. Learning to accept criticism, alternative viewpoints, and even outright insults will make you happier in the long run than routinely playing the victim card.

2. You Cannot Be Whatever You Want To Be

This is a comforting lie parents have started telling their children to boost their morale in school. Unfortunately, millennials are now convinced it’s true, especially as society has now decided to push this narrative as well. The reality is if you’re 17 years old and still can’t figure out basic division, you’re not going to be a rocket scientist. If you’re overweight and unattractive, you’re not going to be the quarterback’s prom date. If you lack fine motor skills, you’re not going to be a heart surgeon. It’s okay to accept that you cannot be whatever you want to be. In fact, once you accept this, you’ll be able to focus on the things you can be — the things you really are talented at.

3. Gender Studies Is A Waste Of Money

You heard me. While some millennials taking useless degrees will claim they’re beneficial for teaching or research positions, the reality is that they just put themselves several thousands dollars in debt to learn how to be a professional victim. While you’re struggling to make ends meet after graduation because nobody who pays more than minimum wage is interested in your qualifications and you’re drowning in student loan debt, be sure to check out the next harsh reality before you start complaining.

4. If You Live In America, You’re Already In The 1%

That’s right. Even though you work at McDonald’s for minimum wage because you got a useless, outrageously expensive college degree, you’re still far better off than the vast majority of the planet. Don’t believe me? Fly to Uganda and check out the living conditions there. Fly to China, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Iran, Russia, and even European countries like Ukraine and Greece, and you’ll quickly discover just how well-off you really are. While it may be cool these days to dump on capitalism, it’s the only reason you aren’t already worse off.

5. You Don’t Have A Right To It Just Because You Exist

That includes healthcare, guaranteed income, and somewhere to live. Just because you’re here and breathing doesn’t mean society owes you anything. Like the billions of people who lived before you, working hard is a better guarantor of wealth and the ability to comfortably take care of yourself than begging society or the government to do it for you. Demanding healthcare be a right, for example, is equivalent to demanding government force the taxpayer to pay for it. While that may seem like a good idea in theory, it only leads to rationing of care when costs become unsustainable, which negatively impacts not just your health, but everyone else’s, too.

6. You DO Have The Right To Live As You Please — But Not To Demand People Accept It

By contrast, you do have the right to live however you please, so long as it’s within the confines of the law. If you want to cross-dress, smoke marijuana, drink lots of alcohol, have lots of sex, and, yes, even go to school for gender studies, then by all means, go for it. Government should not be allowed to legislate people’s behavior as long as it doesn’t infringe upon someone else’s rights, but that doesn’t mean society isn’t allowed to have an opinion. You don’t have the right to demand people keep their opinions about your lifestyle to themselves, especially if you’re open and public about it. I have as much of a right to comment on the way you live your life as you do to actually live it. Your feelings are not a protected right, but my speech is.

7. The Only Safe Space Is Your Home

No matter where you go in life, someone will be there to offend you. Maybe it’s a joke you overheard on vacation, a spat at the office, or a difference of opinion with someone in line at the grocery store. Inevitably, someone will offend you and your values. If you cannot handle that without losing control of your emotions and reverting back to your “safe space” away from the harmful words of others, then you’re best to just stay put at home. Remember, though: if people in the outside world scare you, people on the internet will downright terrify you. It’s probably best to just accept these harsh realities of life and go out into the world prepared to confront them wherever they may be waiting.

Brexit

The Economy: The Fed concluded its 2-day meeting today with its usual inaction. This time it was because “the labor market has slowed.” Next month it’ll be due to the shrinking icepack in Antarctica. TGISummerTime. The dull, monotone of the Fed press conference seemed to confirm that no-one expects anything from these Amos and Andy dissimulators. Financial markets rallied into the Fed’s press conference then reversed course and sold off at its conclusion. It was as if markets were rattling their sabers and shouting, “enough with the tofu, give us some real meat.” The message remains the same: The Fed doesn’t believe that the economy is strong enough to survive without continued support. If the Fed is right, then financial markets have no business being near all-time highs. If the Fed is wrong then markets should be much higher than they are. So who’s on first?

Food for Thought: BREXIT!!!!!!!!!!! British Exit. Next Thursday, June 23, our cousins across the pond will vote on whether to remain in the European Union (EU). Global markets will go haywire, regardless of the vote, before settling back into their somnambulant complacency. The EU was founded in 1951 and has never had a member state leave the club. Brexit will shatter the illusion of Union. It will also establish a guidebook for other nations itching to ditch Brussels. Great Britain has always had a love/hate relationship with its EU membership. Polls show about a 50-50 split on the issue with screamers on both sides saying it’ll be the end of the world. Britain has always been of Europe but not in Europe. So their disenchantment with EU monetary policy, immigration and unelected EU officials ruling by diktat has been brewing for a long time. Take note then retire to the beach to enjoy the summer.

Music of The Week: The Beatles “Rubber Soul”

La Jolla Shores Bull Market

The Economy: The U.S. economy appeared to be motoring along in slow gear until last Friday. Then the abysmal jobs report was released and it cast uncertainty into the equation. Immediately, the odds of a Fed hike in June went to zero as investors recalibrated their tactics. Then on Monday of this week Fed Chair Yellen warned against putting too much emphasis on one report. She indicated that rate hikes were still in the cards for 2016. Yep … like a snow ball’s chance … . The bottom line is this: The Fed doesn’t believe that the U.S. economy is strong enough to allow for normalization of interest rates. We are stuck at the zero bound which is causing havoc for savers, banks and insurance companies. But the Fed lacks the confidence in the economy to end financial repression. How this plays out is anyone’s guess. The Battle of The Analysts is in full swing with some insisting that the end of the world is nigh. Others are equally vocal in calling for an end to cash so that governments can more accurately monitor the economy. The NSA must be salivating over the prospect of knowing where every nickel you spend is going. We’ve never been fond of Central Banks, run by academics, trying to impose economic theory on the real world. For a beautiful example of Central Banker Mindset, see Paxton Whitehead as economics Professor Philip Barbay, in Rodney Dangerfield’s 1986 comedy “Back to School.” He truly gets no respect.

Food for Thought: Global growth rates continue to be cut. This is occurring while global stock markets rebound from their first quarter swoon. Is this divergence evidence of The Greater Fool Theory or is it The Dawning of the Age of Aquarius? Your choice. We remain strapped to the rocket but have both hands on the ejection lever. The principals here at Higgins Capital have lived through several market crashes. The crashes follow the same script: Months of warnings culminate in a tipping point that seems to catch everyone by surprise. Far too many investors go from rompin’ stompin’ bulls to deer in the headlights unable to process the environment until they’re down 40%. Do not let this happen to you. Have an exit strategy. Know what you own and why you own it. Have real or mental stops on your portfolio. Trust your own personal experience over that of experts. Are things in your personal economic life or the economic life of your organization going so well as to justify new highs in a 7-year old bull market? Why do we continue to hear about new and more economic stimulus? Beware of Central Bankers bearing gifts.

San Diego’s Economy

The Economy: The Fed’s Beige Book was released today. The Beige Book is produced 8-times a year. It is a summary of current economic conditions in the U.S. Today’s Beige Book highlighted “modest growth.” There’s no real news here. The U.S. has had modest growth since 2009. What we should be seeing by this time in the economic cycle is an economy that’s in danger of overheating. We don’t have overheating. Instead, we have a Fed that is uncertain of continued economic expansion and terrified that another quarter point interest rate hike will destroy American capitalism. On the contrary, our informal street poll tells us that even a 2% rise in interest rates wouldn’t change people’s buying habits. Is the confidence we encounter on the street due to life in the sunny California Fast Lane? As we’ve noted previously, California is a dynamic Pacific Rim Country. The Golden State is flush with Defense dollars, booming high-tech/med-tech, enviable tourism, manufacturing and agriculture. Most Californians appear to be doing just fine. So why the national wailing and moaning? Are we missing something out here on the Left Coast?

Food for Thought: The interesting thing about the current economy is that many Americans are still talking about the 2008 financial crisis almost a decade after the fact. By contrast, in the late 1980s nobody was still talking about Paul Volker and struggle to end runaway inflation. In the late 1990s, nobody was still talking about the Savings and Loan crisis. At the peak of the last economic cycle in 2007, no one was still talking about the Dot-Com bust of 2000. Yet today people still talk about the Financial Crisis and its lasting effects. Perhaps this is because median family net worth for the middle class is 30% below its 2000 peak and lower than it was in 2002. Perhaps it’s because the internet has created an information explosion manned by screaming click-bait gadflys who are obsessed with sensationalizing the negative.

Music of The Week: Van Morrison’s “Astral Weeks”