Donald Trump on Fire

The Economy: Benign economic numbers continue to support the view that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace of about 2% annually. In the past this would be the cause of recession concerns. In today’s world 2% growth is cause for celebration. As we’ve said before, your personal experience, in this economy, remains your best indicator for how the economy is doing. Part of the difficulty in seeing consistency in the economic numbers, is that the numbers were designed decades ago to measure capital intensive industries like automobile manufacturing. It’s difficult to evaluate the information economy using tools designed for a different age. For example, despite the huge sums pouring into San Diego County from Pentagon and tourism spending, a recent survey found that the San Diego economy has contracted for the first time in years. Another sign of a possible slowdown is that Venture Capital spending appears to have peaked. … but June Gloom is gone and the sun sparkled surf is calling. So to quote Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll think about it tomorrow.”

Food for Thought: No ho-hum dog days of summer this year. Brexit, Terrorism, Turkish Coups and the U.S. Presidential Conventions are providing a roller coaster of uncertainty. The uncertainty translates into more global monetary stimulus for longer. The tsunami of loose money flows into global stock markets. TINA is the new black. TINA (There Is No Alternative) makes the world go round. With interest rates at unprecedented lows, investors are chasing yield by jumping into stocks … because There Is No Alternative. As an investment philosophy, TINA is second only to Buy the Dip as the opiate of the masses. But, hey! … while you’re in the stratosphere swilling Cristal the ride is exhilarating. The sky is not falling, but we remain cautious about buying this market.

Music of The Week: Dave Brubeck’s “Time Out”

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