Monthly Archives: October 2017

Never Saw Things Going So Right

The Economy: Eight years into the current economic expansion there is nothing on the horizon likely to disrupt things for the next 6-12 months. Of course this could change at any moment. However we don’t see anything at present. The geopolitical situation could change at any moment. Some unforeseen event could trigger a meltdown in any number of national economies. But at present we see the immediate future as a continuation of the recent economic past. Central banks appear to be on a synchronized path of higher interest rates. Eventually this will impact global stock markets. But when that occurs is an unknown. For every economic number released there are pundits in support and opposed. Choose your poison. We continue to emphasize that you should keep an eye on the horizon while staying focused on your own specific situation.

Food for Thought: Stocks remain on a rocket ride with new records set almost every day. We’re 8-years into what is now the second longest bull market in history. It is crystal clear that regardless of age or valuations, this market will continue to go up until it doesn’t. Like the global economic expansion, there is nothing on the horizon that spells the end. We may see a correction that ushers in a final run to the top. … or there may be several corrections that eventually end the institutionalized Buy-The-Dip reaction to all pullbacks we’ve seen in the past 8-years. Of interest is that on separate occasions I was told by individual investors that the Dow will go to 30,000 before the ride is over; another stated that the Dow would be at 100,000 in 10-years. Reminds me of Ella Fitzgerald’s Blue Skies: “Never saw the sun shining so bright, Never saw things going so right …”

Music of The Week: Ken Navarro’s “Smooth Sensation”

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Stocks Will Continue to Go Up Until They Don’t

The Economy: The week’s economic highlight was Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book. It showed moderate growth and little inflation. Lower demand in the economy is discussed as being the result of higher healthcare deductibles for consumers. More out of pocket for healthcare means less available for other spending. The Fed remains on track to again raise rates in December. The Beige Book was almost an afterthought to a week of upbeat economic news: Low inflation; retail sales up; manufacturing up; global stocks reaching record highs; investors pouring money into stocks; Industrial production up; housing up; Philly Fed Index up; Bloomberg Consumer Sentiment up. What’s not to like?

Food for Thought: My good friend Sam commented that my “More Money” email appears to be increasingly amazed at the non-stop rampaging bull market. He’s right. … You can slice and dice the metrics, the geopolitical environment and every conspiracy theory out there. Compelling arguments abound. To rest easier and become one with nature, simply accept that stocks will continue to go up until they don’t.

Music of The Week: Ziggy Marley’s “Conscious Party”

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Cowabunga! “The Bull Market in Everything”

The Economy: “Synchronized Global Expansion” remains the bullish buzzword with 45 countries expanding in lock-step. This is a first in 50-years. Central bank liquidity programs and global debt are fueling the growth. The front cover of The Economist says it all, “The Bull Market in Everything.” Stocks, bonds, real estate, alternative investments, art, wine, automobiles, chopsticks. Everything and the kitchen sink has gone vertical and defies gravity. The relentless upward thrust makes the North Korean missile shoots look boring by comparison.

Food for Thought: Back in the day when there were economic cycles and price discovery, investors looked for nuggets in value or special situations. Today, the bull market steamroller has overruled causality and flattened every bear in sight. Thoughts of correction are dim; of a market crash, non-existent. Cowabunga!

Music of The Week: Shania Twain’s “Now”

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Bless Her Heart

The Economy: “Synchronized Global Expansion” is the latest buzzword describing our global and national economy. While the Fed begins reducing their balance sheet this month, the rest of global central banks continue to print money with abandon; piling on more debt for future generations. How this house of cards ends is anyone’s guess. While we shake our heads in wonder, the flip side of the coin is that the Good Ole USA might actually pull it off. Natural and man-made disasters aside, Armageddon may not occur. Not to sound like a shill, but as a nation we have a history of coming back from the brink. While Americans appear to be more divided than ever before, the numbers show an optimism that can’t be denied. Consumer confidence is at all-time highs. Manufacturing indices are surging. Inflation remains historically low. Last but not least, the stock market continues to set new records. You can argue that the economic expansion is in the 7 or 8th inning. You can debate equity valuations or comparisons. You can read the tea leaves till you’re blue in the face. But one thing is clear; stocks are saying that the good times will continue.

Food for Thought: “Bless her heart” is Southern Belle code. Spoken in sympathetic tones, it translates into “That gal is out of control!” Such is the case of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s quixotic effort to put Wells Fargo out of business because of its ongoing regulatory problems. Bless her heart! Liz confuses herself with Moses and the Golden Calf. Bless her heart. First, there’s the matter of elevation: There is no Mount Sinai; she’s in The Swamp. Second, the Golden Calf is the Federal Reserve which is the Titanium Transformer; stronger than dirt and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. Bless her heart. Third, hurling tablets don’t work no mo. The good Senator from Massachusetts would be more effective chasing Salem witches than tackling a TBTF bank.

Music of The Week: Tom Petty’s “Southern Accents.” Tom Petty passed away this week at 66.