Tag Archives: Defense

Stock Market Euphoria

The Economy: The Holiday Cheer keeps coming. Last week it was Happy Holidays! It’s all good: Home prices up 5% year over year. The U.S. economy expanding at the fastest pace in 3-years. Consumer confidence far above expectations. This week it’s Happy Holidays Again!! It’s all good again: ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 57.2 in November; above consensus. October factory orders rose 2.7% also above expectations. Durable goods posted a 4.6% increase once again above expectations. JOLTS revised higher. The incoming administration has a Santa Bag full of action items to move the US in new directions: Obama Care, immigration, deregulation tax code, infrastructure, trade, education, defense, foreign policy. Financial markets have priced in immediate passage and implementation of every utterance. What comes out of the sausage making we call the legislative process, is anyone’s guess.

Food for Thought: Rock On! Markets have been on a roll since the Trump election. This has the feel of a Triple: Post election relief rally, Year-end performance chasing and the traditional Santa Clause rally. Trump supporters have the stage as they advocate a sea change. Hillary fans continue the fight with promises of disruptions in the Electoral College. I’m all for Dedication to The Cause but that’s why we call tilting at windmills Quixotic. After 2-years of flat returns, stocks have jumped to new highs in the past 4-weeks. The markets took 3-days to shake off-Brexit, 3-hours to shake-off the Trump election and 3-minutes to shake-off the Italian election. We’re on track for the next event to have 30-seconds of impact. Complacency Rules so remember Icarus and don’t fly to close to the sun. Have a Great Holiday!

Music of the Week: Dean Martin’s “A Winter Romance”

Chargers Stadium

The Economy: Economic numbers continue to show a U.S. economy that is slowly expanding. The Fed’s Beige Book was released today and confirmed the “moderate growth” that has become the standard for the past several years. Observers continue to wait to see if growth will accelerate or slow. It’s now been 7-years without some type of confirmation that things are getting better all around. Instead of a sense of wellbeing, we have pockets of folks doing well versus groups who are still waiting for their lives to pick-up. In San Diego, outside of defense and tourism, our informal polling indicates that for most business owners and executives “things are flat; about like they were last year.” Overheard in a restaurant yesterday was the comment, “I don’t think this economy is doing as well as we’re supposed to believe.” Waiting for Godot.

Food for Thought: The proposed Chargers Stadium continues to polarize San Diego voters as the election approaches. One wag was heard to comment that, “I have a problem with billionaires asking for public assistance, so that millionaires can play a game that rich people watch.” Other business owners have been heard to ask, “When do I get my handout from the city for my business?”

Music of the Week: Charlie Byrd’s “The Best of Charlie Byrd”