Tag Archives: European Union

Trump Trumps the Numbers

The Economy: The latest numbers appear to support an improving global economic picture. That certainly seems to be the case in the U.S. There are issues with Italian Banks but the ECB is determined to do whatever it takes to preserve the EU regardless of how they have to jigger the numbers. There’s more transparency in the U.S. but conflicting data or opposite interpretations of the same data creates confusion. These conflicting interpretations are not fake news. It appears to be how the data is parsed. We continue to urge that you evaluate your personal and professional situation to properly evaluate how events will impact you. With the flurry of activity from the Trump administration, it’s impossible to know how markets will ultimately react. Caution is advised.

Food for Thought: The Trump agenda continues to quickly unfold. Executive Orders have been announced almost daily. Cabinet officers continue to be approved. All branches of the Federal Government are on notice that budget cuts and profound change is coming. Global governments are struggling to make sense out of the new and developing U.S. foreign policy. The Main Stream Media (MSM) has been and continues to be demonized; officially branded as “The Opposition.” With less than 2-weeks in office, there is greater uncertainty than we’ve ever seen. Some say the deep state is immune to change. I think it’s premature to assume that the leviathan can’t be moved in a new direction. The challenge is to skate to where the puck will be.

Music of the Week: Huey Lewis and The News “Greatest Hits”

Brexit

The Economy: The Fed concluded its 2-day meeting today with its usual inaction. This time it was because “the labor market has slowed.” Next month it’ll be due to the shrinking icepack in Antarctica. TGISummerTime. The dull, monotone of the Fed press conference seemed to confirm that no-one expects anything from these Amos and Andy dissimulators. Financial markets rallied into the Fed’s press conference then reversed course and sold off at its conclusion. It was as if markets were rattling their sabers and shouting, “enough with the tofu, give us some real meat.” The message remains the same: The Fed doesn’t believe that the economy is strong enough to survive without continued support. If the Fed is right, then financial markets have no business being near all-time highs. If the Fed is wrong then markets should be much higher than they are. So who’s on first?

Food for Thought: BREXIT!!!!!!!!!!! British Exit. Next Thursday, June 23, our cousins across the pond will vote on whether to remain in the European Union (EU). Global markets will go haywire, regardless of the vote, before settling back into their somnambulant complacency. The EU was founded in 1951 and has never had a member state leave the club. Brexit will shatter the illusion of Union. It will also establish a guidebook for other nations itching to ditch Brussels. Great Britain has always had a love/hate relationship with its EU membership. Polls show about a 50-50 split on the issue with screamers on both sides saying it’ll be the end of the world. Britain has always been of Europe but not in Europe. So their disenchantment with EU monetary policy, immigration and unelected EU officials ruling by diktat has been brewing for a long time. Take note then retire to the beach to enjoy the summer.

Music of The Week: The Beatles “Rubber Soul”