Tag Archives: Global Economies

Steady as She Goes for the Only Game in Town

The Economy: Steady as she goes with our heads firmly planted in the sand … or elsewhere that the sun doesn’t shine. Global economies continue to report they are expanding … with the ongoing Central Banks stimuli of hundreds of billions. So the logical question is, “How healthy is the patient in an induced coma with 9-IVs and a ventilator?” The answer is that it depends on who you’re talking with. A sunny, weekend walk around La Jolla shows streets paved with gold, crowded with exotic cars, full of laughing shoppers swilling $4,500 Haut Brion while lighting their smokes with $100 bills. The local lululemon says that business has never been better. But the company founder says the stock has crashed and wiped $10 billion in equity off the books. Chicanery or the drunken revelry of those untouched by hardship, convinced of their moral superiority? If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, did it make noise? The smart money didn’t pay attention to Vulcan at his anvil inside Vesuvius either.

Food for Thought: You can run but you can’t hide. The consensus is that financial markets are insane but still the only game in town. … game being the operative. Central Banks have manipulated markets beyond any point of recognition. So what happens next? Good question. Everyone agrees that when things end it will be the Mother of All Ugly (MOAU?!?). Everybody except you is going to be wiped out. You’re going to be in cash when the end comes and then jump into the greatest buying opportunity in history. Of course, everyone is planning to do this. So beware Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”

Music of the Week: Steven Kummer’s “Nice ‘N Easy”

Clinton & Trump: The Home Stretch

The Economy: Call it The Pause that Might Refresh: Global economies appear to be coasting into the new year at a steady state. Neither expansion nor contraction is on the horizon. Some of the negative interest rates in Europe have returned to the positive side of the ledger. If the Chinese Communist Party organs are to be believed, growth there is powering along at 7%. Brexit is unfolding with the usual court challenges to the will of the people. The Fed meeting was a non-event and I’m beginning to think that an interest rate hike may not happen in December. Bookies have the probability at 70-80% but I don’t see a compelling reason. If the Presidential Candidate known as The FBI Suspect is elected interest rates may stay lower for 4 more years. If the Presidential Candidate known as The Russian Spy is elected, Janet and the 7 Dwarfs may push interest rates through the roof … in a hissy fit of spite before they are fired. Call it life in a 3rd world country.

Food for Thought:
1944: 18-year olds storm the beach of Normandy into almost certain death.
2016: 18-year olds need a safe place because words hurt their feelings.

Music of the Week: Roy Rogers’ “Happy Trails to You”