The Economy: Happy Holidays! It’s all good. Home prices up 5% year over year. The U.S. economy expanding at the fastest pace in 3-years. Consumer confidence far above expectations. On the near horizon: Votes in Italy and Austria that may see more exits from the EU. Expectations that the Electoral College will confirm the U.S. Presidential Election. Anticipation of a ¼% Fed interest rate hike in mid-December. Prospects that we’re on the verge of another leg up in equities.
Food for Thought: Holiday joy is offset by the aftermath of the election. Partisans on both sides have sharpened their knives and created their lists. Though Republicans have The Hill and the White House, no one is calling it a mandate with the popular vote having eluded them. However, Trump is a man of a different color; arguably the first Man on Horseback since Teddy Roosevelt. Obama has established the precedent of rule by Executive Order; bypassing the Constitution, Congress and the Courts. Expect this to continue; first with the unwinding of the Obama agenda and then with its replacement. As The Circus leaves town, it looks to be replaced by The Wild West Show.
Music of the Week: Elwood Brothers “Jazz Tannenbaum”
The Economy: High jinx at the Circus on the Potomac highlighted this week. On Tuesday, Wells Fargo’s CEO was excoriated by Senator Elizabeth Warren. Her roasting included comments that the CEO should resign and that he should face criminal prosecution. She pointed out that he has made hundreds of millions as a result of the fraudulent account shenanigans at Wells. But if the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis is a guide, the Wells Fargo board will probably give their guy a raise and millions of additional stock options. Today saw the Fed report out of their latest 2-day meeting with no change in interest rates. This was the expected outcome. Asked if this was a political move inspired by the upcoming presidential election, Fed Chair Yellen denied that she leads a Clinton Fed. Lower for longer remains the name of the game.
Food for Thought: Financial markets usually lead the real economy both up and down. Here in San Diego, our ongoing street poll has begun to show weakness is some sectors of the San Diego economy. There is some evidence that the uncertainty in the financial markets is bleeding over into the real San Diego economy. What we’re hearing is that new money is slowing down. Business owners and executives appear to be taking more of a wait and see attitude towards new endeavors. Increasingly we’re hearing folks say, “I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop.” A recent San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce poll shows San Diego business confidence at a 3-year low.
Music of the Week: Atlantic Five Jazz Band’s “Bar Music Moods – The Piano Edition Vol. 1”