The Economy: The CPI and PPI prints were hotter than expected and have helped to juice the stock market indices to a 50% rebound. The feel good mood has been further enhanced by the Olympics. Winners all. Inflation indicators watched by the Fed are are heating up. … and bond vigilantes seem to be on the loose with interest rates accelerating higher. As has always been the case, the Fed will follow the markets. There are few consumers who remember interest rate hikes that crimp economic activity. Fewer still who remember being priced out of a home or auto loan because interest rates moved against them. … remember when an 8% home mortgage was to die for? How many real estate players could handle those metrics today. How about those halcyon days of 16% home mortgages? Fun!
Food for Thought: Annuities and life insurance have evolved in ways that work well with investors seeking income or the possibility of establishing an estate. In specific situations they may be a prudent investment for retirees. Contact us if you have questions about creating or supplementing your retirement income.
Music of The Week: Sade’s “Lovers Rock”
We Quarterback Money®
The Economy: Amidst weak economic numbers the DOW punched through 22,000 and is holding as we go to press. The Fed, which backed off their intent to normalize monetary policy, has provided another leg up to the markets. During the election Trump castigated Yellen for keeping interest rates abnormally low. Now he supports lower for longer. Likewise stock market valuations. During the election Trump called stocks, “a big fat ugly bubble.” Now he’s taken ownership and claims credit for the surge since the election. Yellen, who is decidedly anti-Trump has the power to crush this market. Yet she also has her legacy to think about. Trump has vowed to replace her in 2018. The question is, “Does she want her legacy to be that of the Fed Chair that crashed the market or is she going to manipulate things so that her successor has to face the music?”
Food for Thought: Shoot the Messenger! The MSM is aflutter about the blowout earnings season. But the Financial Times has this to say in the section titled, ’Reasons to be Skeptical About the Earnings Recovery,’ “These are far from reassuring numbers. The picture they reinforce is that US large companies have been able to grow earnings through financial engineering even though their cash flows are flat, or even declining. …the apparent earnings recovery of large US listed companies … may have been something of a mirage.” For example, the DOW is a price weighted average, so Boeing (BA), with its $235 price has been responsible for ¾ of the DOW’s recent 278 point increase. After eight years of the bull market, no one is thinking about risk anymore.
Music of the Week: Dean Martin’s “Italian Love Songs”
The Economy: We end the month of May with a review, since the election, of comments on the economy and the financial markets:
2016_11_09: Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine: “Buy This Market on Trump, Growth and Inflation.”
2016_11_09: Stanley Druckenmiller: “Buy This Market.”
2017_01_31: Kyle Bass, of Hayman Capital Management: A lower corporate tax rate … will be “extremely stimulative.”
2017_02_02: Dan Loeb Hedgie: “The … election was the most significant event of the year …”
2017_02_08: Larry Fink BlackRock CEO: “I believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown … because of all the uncertainty.”
2017_02_12: Jim Rogers: “We’re about to have the worst economic problems of a lifetime … ”
2017_03_02: Raymond James’ Jeff Saut: “I’ve never seen anything like this market, so I’m not going to play.”
2017_03_09: Bill Gross Janus Capital Group: ”…our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road …”
2017_04_01: Jamie Dimon CEO JP Morgan: “It is clear that something is wrong” with the nation.”
2017_05_10: Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine: “The VIX Is Insanely Low”
2017_05_09: Lloyd Blankfein Goldman Sachs CEO: … low volatility… is not a “normal resting state” for markets.
2017_05_09: Art Cashin, of UBS: “It’s not normal … people are so blasé about what’s happening,”
2017_05_13: Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: “…the downturn … will likely produce much greater social and political conflict than currently exists.”
2017_05_30: Paul Singer of Elliott Management: When, Trump’s pro-growth agenda fails to be implemented, “all hell will break loose” …
2017_05_31: Benjamin Bowler, Bank of America Strategist: …”these markets are very weird”… US equities continue to set long-term records for instability”…
Food for Thought: My original entry for this paragraph was a commentary on Kathy Griffin. However, the Higgins Capital editors/censors, comprised of my wife and daughter, redacted so much of my reaction to Griffin’s wanton act of pure evil and hatred that the result looked like something like this from the CIA: “At__point__. Ultimately__media__internet__; __silent__”high__What’s__Award.” Long story short, my rant on decency and graciousness ended up on the cutting room floor.
Music of the Week: Cat Stevens’ “Tea for the Tillerman”
The Economy: Economic numbers continue to show a U.S. economy that is slowly expanding. The Fed’s Beige Book was released today and confirmed the “moderate growth” that has become the standard for the past several years. Observers continue to wait to see if growth will accelerate or slow. It’s now been 7-years without some type of confirmation that things are getting better all around. Instead of a sense of wellbeing, we have pockets of folks doing well versus groups who are still waiting for their lives to pick-up. In San Diego, outside of defense and tourism, our informal polling indicates that for most business owners and executives “things are flat; about like they were last year.” Overheard in a restaurant yesterday was the comment, “I don’t think this economy is doing as well as we’re supposed to believe.” Waiting for Godot.
Food for Thought: The proposed Chargers Stadium continues to polarize San Diego voters as the election approaches. One wag was heard to comment that, “I have a problem with billionaires asking for public assistance, so that millionaires can play a game that rich people watch.” Other business owners have been heard to ask, “When do I get my handout from the city for my business?”
Music of the Week: Charlie Byrd’s “The Best of Charlie Byrd”