The Economy: We end the month of May with a review, since the election, of comments on the economy and the financial markets:
2016_11_09: Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine: “Buy This Market on Trump, Growth and Inflation.”
2016_11_09: Stanley Druckenmiller: “Buy This Market.”
2017_01_31: Kyle Bass, of Hayman Capital Management: A lower corporate tax rate … will be “extremely stimulative.”
2017_02_02: Dan Loeb Hedgie: “The … election was the most significant event of the year …”
2017_02_08: Larry Fink BlackRock CEO: “I believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown … because of all the uncertainty.”
2017_02_12: Jim Rogers: “We’re about to have the worst economic problems of a lifetime … ”
2017_03_02: Raymond James’ Jeff Saut: “I’ve never seen anything like this market, so I’m not going to play.”
2017_03_09: Bill Gross Janus Capital Group: ”…our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road …”
2017_04_01: Jamie Dimon CEO JP Morgan: “It is clear that something is wrong” with the nation.”
2017_05_10: Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine: “The VIX Is Insanely Low”
2017_05_09: Lloyd Blankfein Goldman Sachs CEO: … low volatility… is not a “normal resting state” for markets.
2017_05_09: Art Cashin, of UBS: “It’s not normal … people are so blasé about what’s happening,”
2017_05_13: Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: “…the downturn … will likely produce much greater social and political conflict than currently exists.”
2017_05_30: Paul Singer of Elliott Management: When, Trump’s pro-growth agenda fails to be implemented, “all hell will break loose” …
2017_05_31: Benjamin Bowler, Bank of America Strategist: …”these markets are very weird”… US equities continue to set long-term records for instability”…
Food for Thought: My original entry for this paragraph was a commentary on Kathy Griffin. However, the Higgins Capital editors/censors, comprised of my wife and daughter, redacted so much of my reaction to Griffin’s wanton act of pure evil and hatred that the result looked like something like this from the CIA: “At__point__. Ultimately__media__internet__; __silent__”high__What’s__Award.” Long story short, my rant on decency and graciousness ended up on the cutting room floor.
Music of the Week: Cat Stevens’ “Tea for the Tillerman”
The Economy: Caution over mixed economic numbers continued this week with Housing Starts unexpectedly weak and Industrial Production unexpectedly strong. Looking ahead, one has to ask if U.S. political turmoil will be reflected in the economy. Today, Texas Representative Al Green, speaking from the floor of The House, called for Trump’s impeachment. So it’s official; the knife fight is on. Consequences be damned. Ideology Rules Supreme. The drama weighed on stock markets as a minor pull-back took hold. Indices were down 1 1/2 to 3% on the day. The VIX (S&P500 Fear Index) was up 46%. But this is not a Black Swan; nothing unexpected here. If the past 8-years are any indication, We can expect today’s losses to be erased before the week is out. Failing Buy-The-Dip, we can expect the Fed to announce another round of stimulus programs to save stock markets. If not a stimulus fix like a QE-4, perhaps a suspension of any further interest rate increases for 2017. After all, Nixon’s Watergate only shaved 45% from stock market valuations. So the Fed has its work cut out for it.
Food for Thought: “If The Glove don’t fit, Impeach!”
Music of the Week: Frank Black’s “Frank Black”
The Economy: Caution best describes the economy. Mixed economic data is being released into the most toxic political environment in decades. Global central bankers continue to add liquidity at unprecedented rates. $1 trillion in liquidity was injected into the global system in the first quarter 2017. Central bankers are committed to supporting real estate and stock markets at all costs. Tens of billions of dollars have flowed into U.S. stock markets from European Central bankers. As with the binary political landscape, economists and investors are split on how the economic landscape will play out. Will there be a day of reckoning based on historic metrics or have interconnected global markets evolved to a new and unknown model. The result of this is that each data release creates more questions than it answers. Banks are easing lending standards but loan demand is down. Why? The Fed is tightening into the weakest recovery in history. Why? Automakers are coming off a huge selling cycle; but incentives and liar loans have fueled sales. Why? The EU is reporting record growth in many areas yet the ECB keeps interest rates at historic lows while continuing to pump record stimulus. Why? Consumer confidence is up but retailers are closing stores at a record pace. Why? These macro questions eventually filter down to local decision making. Hence our emphasis on how your organization views the horizon.
Food for Thought: The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is known as The Fear Index. It’s used as an indication of investor complacency. The VIX is now at multi-decade lows; recently touching lows not seen since 1993. In the course of the past 8-years Central Bankers have rescued stock markets with such frequency that “Buy The Dip” has become a sound strategy for many investors. After a 3% pullback stock markets have regularly rebounded to new highs. Black Swans have ceased to be meaningful as investors have accepted that Central Bankers will always, successfully come to the rescue. Investors have the constitutional right to make money by investing in stocks and real estate. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse have been replaced by The Four Horsemen of Guaranteed Investment Profits. Risk is Dead and markets will go up forever. Yet, as Bob Farrell famously noted, “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”
Music of the Week: Dire Straits’ “Dire Straits”