The Economy: Eight years into the current economic expansion there is nothing on the horizon likely to disrupt things for the next 6-12 months. Of course this could change at any moment. However we don’t see anything at present. The geopolitical situation could change at any moment. Some unforeseen event could trigger a meltdown in any number of national economies. But at present we see the immediate future as a continuation of the recent economic past. Central banks appear to be on a synchronized path of higher interest rates. Eventually this will impact global stock markets. But when that occurs is an unknown. For every economic number released there are pundits in support and opposed. Choose your poison. We continue to emphasize that you should keep an eye on the horizon while staying focused on your own specific situation.
Food for Thought: Stocks remain on a rocket ride with new records set almost every day. We’re 8-years into what is now the second longest bull market in history. It is crystal clear that regardless of age or valuations, this market will continue to go up until it doesn’t. Like the global economic expansion, there is nothing on the horizon that spells the end. We may see a correction that ushers in a final run to the top. … or there may be several corrections that eventually end the institutionalized Buy-The-Dip reaction to all pullbacks we’ve seen in the past 8-years. Of interest is that on separate occasions I was told by individual investors that the Dow will go to 30,000 before the ride is over; another stated that the Dow would be at 100,000 in 10-years. Reminds me of Ella Fitzgerald’s Blue Skies: “Never saw the sun shining so bright, Never saw things going so right …”
Music of The Week: Ken Navarro’s “Smooth Sensation”
We Quarterback Money®
The Economy: Steady as she goes with our heads firmly planted in the sand … or elsewhere that the sun doesn’t shine. Global economies continue to report they are expanding … with the ongoing Central Banks stimuli of hundreds of billions. So the logical question is, “How healthy is the patient in an induced coma with 9-IVs and a ventilator?” The answer is that it depends on who you’re talking with. A sunny, weekend walk around La Jolla shows streets paved with gold, crowded with exotic cars, full of laughing shoppers swilling $4,500 Haut Brion while lighting their smokes with $100 bills. The local lululemon says that business has never been better. But the company founder says the stock has crashed and wiped $10 billion in equity off the books. Chicanery or the drunken revelry of those untouched by hardship, convinced of their moral superiority? If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, did it make noise? The smart money didn’t pay attention to Vulcan at his anvil inside Vesuvius either.
Food for Thought: You can run but you can’t hide. The consensus is that financial markets are insane but still the only game in town. … game being the operative. Central Banks have manipulated markets beyond any point of recognition. So what happens next? Good question. Everyone agrees that when things end it will be the Mother of All Ugly (MOAU?!?). Everybody except you is going to be wiped out. You’re going to be in cash when the end comes and then jump into the greatest buying opportunity in history. Of course, everyone is planning to do this. So beware Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”
Music of the Week: Steven Kummer’s “Nice ‘N Easy”
The Economy: Consumer confidence surged; Everything home-building looking positive. The US continues to post impressive economic numbers. Though nay-sayers shout “Fake News” with every number that’s posted. All news is good news with individual investors finally beginning to pour money into stocks. Brexit, Trump, the rise of populism, the assault on globalism, immigration and the environment are no reason to slow financial markets still feasting on $200 billion a month in central bank stimulus. Repealing and replacing Obamacare was to provide billions in tax savings. Those savings were to be factored into the overhaul of the tax code. The narrative was that passage was a slam dunk. The subsequent fail produced a new narrative that Tax Overhaul would sail through regardless. Markets were thrilled that billions in lost tax savings no longer mattered. True to form, a massive rally followed the fail.
Food for Thought: The Trump phenomenon continues to unfold in stark black and white. Love him or hate him he is a phenomenon. Polarizing in the extreme, he’s brought out the worst in many. The main stream media (MSM), Hollywood, the UN, NATO and foreign governments seem to be the most shocked. Sacred Cows everywhere are in retreat. All concerned are becoming aware that POTUS is a brawler who enjoys taking the fight to the street. As a businessman The Donald understands that the best way to gut a program or department is to decapitate administration and cut or curtail funding. No money, no staffing, no decisions, no activity, no continuation of programs outside the Trump Agenda. Brilliant or Brutal depending on your persuasion. How this ultimately plays out is anyone’s guess. How the financial markets respond is also anyone’s guess. With the stroke of a pen, Trump is undoing decades of U.S. policy and redirecting national priorities and resources. Markets continue to treat these unprecedented events as a win for all sectors of the economy. The prime example is Climate Change. The administration’s position is, “We’re not going to spend any more money on that.” Yet the response of financial markets is that the trillions invested in this sector are going to continue on the same growth trajectory as when they were darlings. Reminds us of PT Barnum’s “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
Music of the Week: Jack Johnson’s “Jack Johnson”
The Economy: Much of what we’re hearing about the U.S. and global economy is positive. In addition, there is a growing sense of optimism led by the business sector which is ecstatic over the idea of tax cuts and less regulation. The ecstasy has yet to be tempered by the reality of the choices that will have to be made. The World Bank has pointed out that some of the benefits of tax cuts will be offset by rising protectionism. As a result, they’ve lowered their projections for global growth. However, financial markets remain upbeat and in rally mode. The animal spirits that have been unleashed since the election may become the self-fulfilling prophecy that ignites higher U.S. economic growth. A great deal depends on how much of the Trump agenda can be enacted and how quickly it can be done.
Food for Thought: There will be a flurry of Executive Orders on January 20th that will stop or unwind years of government and business activity. How that plays out is up to speculation. Follow-up legislation is also subject. Facing what may be the most dramatic change in decades; investors seem to be confident that this sea-change will occur quickly and painlessly. Obamacare will be replaced without any of the healthcare players suffering. Strategic realignment away from free trade, global warming and bilateral defense treaties will occur without impact on profits. Strict constructionism will take place without consequence. 80-years of immigration will be changed without economic effect. Mom used to tell us, “You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs.” Review your exposure.
The Economy: The Economy took a back seat to politics this week with the historic Trump upset and Washington now firmly under Republican control. Republican control of both the executive and legislative branches is a double-edged sword. Now there are no excuses for gridlock. The agenda had better be enacted quickly and it better show results. The demand for change which swept the elections is just that: a demand. There will be little patience for failure.
Food for Thought: Global financial markets gyrated dramatically with the Trump victory. Overseas markets tanked. U.S. stock markets fell off a cliff then bounced and screamed higher. The bond market sold off with interest rates moving higher. How this plays out is anyone’s guess. As we move into the last weeks of the year, we encourage you to review your financial picture. Year-end is always a workup to tax time. It’s a prudent idea to check your goals.
Music of the Week: Annie Lennox “Diva”